Conventional Wisdom from Goldman Sachs

November brings a permament festival air to Mumbai.

Ganpathi is closely followed by Diwali, closely followed by Thanksgiving, closely followed by pre-Christmas shopping season. In a country that boasts one of the fastest growing rates of consumption in the world - commerical events like Christmas make for a shopkeeper's cherry on an ever growing cup cake.

Conventional wisdom from Goldman Sachs states that India's economy will overtake France, Italy, Germany, UK, and Russia by 2025. In 2035, India is predicted to overtake Japan, and become the 3rd largest economy in the world behind the US and China. That's based on an average growth rate of 5.5% - India is currently growing at 9.4%!

The ante has already been upped in the verbal war with China - the fast growth competititor - with a 'Made in China' campaign here in Mumbai. Lots of negative press being built around the quality of product being delivered out of China, either manufacturing or services - either way Indians already see themselves in a head-to-head battle with China to make it big - catty business this world domination ..... http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/3604.html

The staggering fact in India's case is that she grows at 9.4% despite having more holidays/festivals/knees-ups than any country I know - particularly China (Bhuddism is well known for its anti-Bank Holiday preachings - Richard Gere hasn't had a day off from being a human for over 6 years now).

Enough of India and its shopping malls, what of the Dumbrell's I hear you cry........ ............... ........... (tumbleweed) ................... ... well here it is anyway!.

For my part I have been most busy filling the coffers of the India Business Processing Outsourcing industry by continuing on with my day job oblivious to the earth shattering significance of this heinous activity. Little did I know that I was a foot soldier in the New World Order where Asia would take over all the economic power that the Middle East doesn't already have (Did you see in the news that a Dubai consortium brought 5% of CitiCorp?)

In between bouts of selling off the British Empire, I managed to get down to Goa with my family and some friends of ours. Soaked up the Goan sun on a beach called Morjim - very pleasant except for the fresh cow dung.





We also attended a Gujarti wedding for the first time this month. Events, from the bride and groom meeting each other for the first time as future man and wife, through to engagement ceremonies, family based shindigs, some religious bits in the middle before the finale. The moon was in the right place on Sunday night so off we went to Chembur, a swish suburb of Mumbai to witness the bit where the families meet each other for the first time.

Indian life is very family oriented so the 'big meet' had quite a lot of tension and trepidation around it. The picture below is of the bride and her female family members, in their glorious
coloured saris awaiting the arrival of the groom's male family members after his ride to the venue on a white horse. Once the two sides have sized each other up, the tape is cut, and lots of eating and general festive behaviour ensue. After that it all gets a bit religious. Bride and groom looked very pleased with themselves and are off to Kuala Lumpur on their honeymoon.

We have just joined a new club in Mumbai thanks to the generous nature of my employer. Waterstones is somewhat of a step up from our previous haunt. For those of you that know me well, you will understand that I feel like a 'pig in 'mud' ' using the gym full of Nautilus Nitro equipment. We have been there a month, and at most I have had to share the gym with one other person - that day, I felt like complaining about overcrowding.

Take a butcher's - http://www.waterstonesclub.com/


She-That-Must-Be-Obeyed has been mighty busy this month with Thanksgiving preparations taking centre stage. I rode on her coat tail one night and was invited (as her plus one) to the American Women's Association Thanksgiving dinner - a small homely affair for 350 of Mumbai's finest ex-patriate community. Spiffing speech about oil and its importance in American foreign policy from the US consul before the Yankee members of the audience preceded to show our Indian friends exactly what extraordinary consumption is all about - I have never seen 30 turkeys disappear so fast in my life! The French Canadian lady I was sitting next to, and I, spent a good couple of hours pulling Yankee chains about the threat of obesity amongst American kids. Karen, of course, kept me at arms length from the US consul and his wife lest I use words like 'imperialist', 'self-serving', or 'world domination' - I decided to let it go because my mate Hilary is the next US President and she will staighten things out. Also I wanted to finish my turkey!

Karen is overjoyed that we have splashed out on Tata Sky at home. It carries a bunch of new channels including the rather marvellous BBC Entertainment which is currently running 'light entertainment' classics such as Footballers Wives and, wait for it 'MIND YOUR LANGUAGE' !! If anyone remembers this late seventies show, you will understand my surprise at the BBCs ability to export it - it should have had a court injunction slapped on it in 1979, so in this politically correct age I am surprised it has not started anti-English riots in Mumbai - time yet I guess.

Conor is bathing in the glory of his Bollywood superstardom now that Goal! has been released to the cinemas here in Mumbai. We have yet to go see it due to the overwhelming demand for tickets and Sir Larry's fear of being left on the cutting room floor! We may have to wait for the DVD release so that we can cope with the stress in our own way in the privacy of our own home. Conor's quest for stardom continues at pace tomorrow night when he takes part in the carol concert to be held at the Grand Hyatt - I have alerted several Bollywood directors to the presence of Aled Jones' Mark II.

Carols have not been my thing since I was Conor's age. Stumbled across this lot in my recent meanderings around the interweb. I love the front man's voice and they are from Brighton which puts them in my good books.

Have a listen....

http://www.themaccabees.co.uk/

Very much looking forward to toasting a marshmallow with some of you in good ol' Blighty from December 23rd. Catch up with you all then.

Dumbers